A value bet can be defined as odds that are being offered that are a greater price than the true probability. When I look at the current Championship promotion market, Wigan stand out as being worth backing at a price of 7/1 at Betfair.
So why are Wigan worth a flutter? Well let’s first look at the teams that are priced at shorter odds for promotion. The first name that jumps out is Leeds United at just over 4/1. They might be the biggest club in the division but as usual they are in disarray and are currently well off the play-off pace.
At the top of the league Leicester are clear but there’s a real battle for second spot. Burnley are keeping the position warm right now but Derby are only two points off the pace, QPR have a game in hand and even Nottingham Forest aren’t out of it.
All four of these teams trade between just over evens and 2/1 to go up, despite the fact that there is only one automatic promotion place to compete for and that history tells us that league position means nothing once the play-offs begin.
All the teams mentioned are underpriced which has the effect of plumping up Wigan’s odds nicely. Also increasing the price for Uwe Rosler’s side is that they are competing for a sixth place finish against a Reading side that were also relegated from the Premier League last season and a Brighton team that reached the play-off final.
With Wigan and Brighton both having a game in hand that could put them just a point behind Reading, there’s not much in it. Where Wigan have an advantage is that they’ve under-performed this season.
Wigan were 14th when Owen Coyle was sacked in December. Rosler took over and lost his opening game in the Europa League but since then Wigan have only lost twice in 16 games in all competitions.
This has included away wins over promotion rivals Derby and Reading, as well FA Cup victories over Premier League opponents Crystal Palace and Cardiff. It’s the sort of form that if spread over a full season would have seen Wigan challenging at the top.
Bouncing straight back to the Premier League this season was never going to be easy for the Latics. They suffered the dual blow of relegation and losing Roberto Martinez, while the FA Cup victory guaranteed fixture congestion as Wigan combined a Europa League campaign with a 46 game league season
So far Wigan have already played 42 matches. You might think that will spell burn out as the season comes to it’s conclusion but being able to purely concentrate on just one competition should give Wigan a boost.
The Europa League is a gruelling tournament that has a reputation for throwing Premier League seasons off track, so it’s no wonder that a Championship squad might struggle to juggle their commitments. Then, just as the European campaign came to an end, another FA Cup run began.
That run looks likely to end away at Manchester City in the quarter-finals, with lightning unlikely to strike twice. Elimination will put Wigan on an even keel with their Championship rivals for the first time this season.
If Wigan can make the play-offs, then there will be a lot of factors in their favour. The momentum will be with them having defied their poor start, while their play-off opponents will be nursing the disappointment of having missed out on automatic promotion.
A good proportion of the side that won the FA Cup are still at the club. They have more big match experience than the other sides competing for a place in the Premier League and have proven their aptitude for knockout football.
Making up lost ground is always tough. It’s not going to be easy for Wigan - with a crunch match against Brighton coming this weekend - but they’re my bet to defy the odds.
Dan Fitch works as a football betting tipster for Betfair